Fort Worth hits a million

One million Fort Worthians. That was the big headline from the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest City-level population estimates. From July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024 the city added 23,442 residents. That’s 2 and a half people per hour. 64 a day. 450 a week. 1,953 a month. Some of them move here. Many of them were born here. Regardless of how residents get here, Fort Worth is a clearly a destination.

Fort Worth’s growth has propelled the city up the rankings of America’s largest cities. A quarter-century ago at the 2000 census, Fort Worth was merely the 27th largest city in the country, sitting at just 534,694, nearly half of what it is today. At the 2010 census Fort Worth was up to #16. Since then, San Francisco, San Jose, Columbus, and Indianapolis have found themselves left behind. The latest City to fall to Fort Worth is our neighbor to the south, Austin. Austin is also growing fast, but not as fast as Fort Worth.

Next in line: Jacksonville, FL. Jacksonville has peskily been teasing Fort Worth for the last few census releases, coming out just barely ahead. The gap between the two is down to less than 2,000 residents, and Fort Worth is growing at a fair clip faster. Remember, 1,953 residents added a month in Fort Worth. Jacksonville’s numbers are almost 500 a month less. Come May next year, it’s likely the new headline will be “Fort Worth Now Among the Ten Largest Cities in America”. 

When Fort Worth does surpass Jacksonville, who’s next? Well, that would be Dallas. At long last, the two cities could be right next to each other in the population rankings, just like they are next to each other on the map. It’s nice to be close to your neighbors, right? Together, the two combine to make DFW metro the first American metro with multiple cities with over one million residents.

Dallas also marks the likely end to Fort Worth’s steady march up the rankings. As the 9th largest city in the country, Dallas is 317,000 residents larger than Fort Worth. It would take decades of growth, without slowing down, for Fort Worth to catch up. Suppose Dallas and Fort Worth continued growing exactly as they did from 2023 to 2024 (though they likely won’t) it wouldn’t be until 2047 for Fort Worth to catch up. This is entirely unpredictable and even reckless to try and chart. But Fort Worth has a few X factors, including a massive extraterritorial jurisdiction that the city can continue to expand into. 

The absolute numbers of Fort Worth’s growth are huge. From 2023-2024 Fort Worth had the fifth-largest numeric increase of all U.S. cities, trailing only San Antonio (23,945), Los Angeles (31,276), Houston (43,217) and New York City (87,184). From 2020-2024 Fort Worth had the third-largest numeric increase of all U.S. cities, adding 84,461 residents over that span, trailing only San Antonio (87,316) and Houston (91,180). 

But Fort Worth’s percent growth is where this really shows. 87,000 residents in New York City’s population of 8 million is a drop in the bucket. Houston’s 2 million+ residents barely notice a couple thousand more. Among the U.S. largest cities (minimum 500,000 resident) none grew more than Fort Worth’s 8.38% growth from 2020 to 2024. That makes Fort Worth the fastest growing large city in America in that span. 

Let’s talk about other cities in Tarrant County. In contrast to Fort Worth, most are facing stagnating population growth. Many are simply built out, and zoning policies won’t allow for more density. Arlington, which had been stagnant for a few years, has picked up steam again, thanks in part to permitting more missing middle housing. Arlington has added 10,000 residents in the last 3 years, topping the 400,000 mark. Mansfield, which still has a large amount of undeveloped land, continues to sprawl southward, adding 8,000 residents since the 2020 census and has topped 80,000 total. Saginaw, while landlocked, has grown a bit thanks to a few new subdivisions, adding 2,000 residents since the year 2000. And that’s where the growth ends. Haltom City, Keller, Southlake, Grapevine, Colleyville, Benbrook and North Richland Hills have barely moved. The H.E.B. cities of Hurst, Euless and Bedford, have combined to lose nearly 3,000 residents since 2020. Fort Worth’s sprawling city limits and increasing central city density are a unique combination that allows it to completely dominate Tarrant County’s growth. 

Back to Fort Worth.

So, is more better? Capitalism loves growth. Growth is often a sign of success. But it comes with challenges. 

With growth, traffic and public transportation become a bigger topic. When Dart broke ground on the light rail system in 1990, Dallas was smaller than Fort Worth is today. Dart’s LRT system today spans 93 miles. Fort Worth is forging ahead with just a pair of commuter rail lines, TEXRail and the Trinity Railway Express. Urban Rail has been named a priority by City leadership, and now is always the best time to start planning. Without transit, the only option for most becomes personal automobiles piling into the roads, and we already know we can’t pave our way out of traffic. 

Housing affordability is always a hot topic. It’s hard to argue that Fort Worth’s ever-expanding single-family sprawl isn’t helping to keep housing prices down. More supply = lower prices, and lower prices = more buyers, and more buyers = more population. Fort Worth has room to sprawl, too. The city’s ETJ is 300 miles. If that was built out to the same population density that Fort Worth currently is, that would add another 861,000 Fort Worthians. But sprawl has it’s own well-documented issues. 

Unlike many suburbs, Fort Worth embraces density. Without density, sprawl would be the only option to grow. Per the City’s comprehensive plan, 11% of Fort Worth’s future land use is zoned for mixed-use, with 38% as single family. But that 11% has the capacity to house a tremendous amount of residents. Take Burnett Lofts in Downtown for example. Burnett Lofts is 330 units on 4.2 acres. Assuming 90% occupancy and 1.5 people per unit (well below the City-average of 2.5) you get a population of 445. To get the same population of sprawl, assuming an 3 residents per home, you’d need 148 houses, and with a typical lot size of .25 acres, you’d need 37 acres. Nearly 9x the land needed to house the same number of people. Density comes with countless other benefits, and documenting Fort Worth’s developing density, be it office, hotels, residential or institutional, is why Now.Town exists. 

Fort Worth is unique among American cities because it has options of how it grows. Most cities have to choose to go up or out, but Fort Worth can do both, and balancing that will be critical. One thing is for sure, Fort Worth ain’t slowing down. And just remember, you are one in a million. 

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